Bayesian Spatial analysis for breast and prostate cancer incidence in Sudan based on 2009-2013 national registry data.
Bayesian Spatial analysis for breast and prostate cancer incidence in Sudan based on 2009-2013 national registry data.
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Date
2023-12
Authors
Madhuchhanda Bhattacharjee3
Volker Schmid
Mohammed A. Abdulrahman
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Publisher
Napata College
Abstract
Background: The spread of cancer disease has been a problem and burden on the global health
systems what led the decision makers and researchers to encourage further investigations research
on related issues. In Sudan, research there is still a need to work on advanced applications such as
Bayesian models or relative risk estimations based on Bayesian methods. Materials & Methods:
This paper investigates the spatial impact on the incidence of cancer in Sudan using Bayesian and
Frequentist methods. The standardized incidence ratios have been calculated for each state, and
INLA with BYM have been used in the investigation. Disease mapping is useful to determine
which areas are with high-risk rates what can be conducted under the Latent Gaussian Model. R INLA package has been used as tool of modeling. Data collected by National Cancer Registry
through 2009-2013, handed to the researcher on 2016, actually, it is the only available complete
data in Sudan at the present time, while the population data for the same period is estimated by the
Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). For the period 2009-2013, a number of 45413 cancer patients
were recorded throughout Sudan, among all cases registered, Breast cancer count was5892Cases,
and Prostate was 2315. Females were 24,439, 54% among the whole cases while males 20,974,
46%. For all cancer cases including gender specific cancers, females appeared to have the highest
number of incidences compared to males. Results: Results from this study- in two parts- revealed
that, the standardized incidence rates indicate the wide spread of the cancers under study in
Northern state and River Nile state; the spatial Bayesian analysis using INLA indicates results
similar to standardized incidence rate. In conclusion, the Northern and River Nile were the most
affected states in Sudan with breast and prostate cancers requiring further studies in identifying
what factors causes the problem. The general trend of the study indicated widespread breast and
prostate cancer in Northern state and River Nile state.
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Original article